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The Campaign:
July 29, 2002:
This is the second of two essay which I wrote near the beginning
of this so called war. It is about what should have happened.
I do not have the knowledge that a field general would have, so
there may be tactical oversights or errors in this essay. However,
though some of the details are not necessarily correct, some things
seem quite obvious. I am sure that the generals who know the terrain
could have implemented this plan.
Last week I posted the case for putting our army on the ground in Afghanistan. I'm sure that caused some raised eyebrows here and there. Some people are sure to say, that's big talk. How do you propose to do that? Let me say it is not big talk, but it is not easy. Nothing in war is easy.
The point is, war has been declared against us. This is not just the pronouncements of Bin Laden and his henchmen. The Taliban leaders of Afghanistan have aided and abetted that war. They have protected and openly supported the Al-Qaida terrorists. It is ridiculous to pretend that Bin Laden is anything but an officer of the Taliban military. It is ridiculous to pretend that Al-Qaida is separate from the Taliban military. They are united against us.
Like it or not, we are at war. The only question is, do we want to prosecute and win that war? If we do, then we must wage war just as we did in the early forties. So long as we do not control Afghanistan, the terrorists will continue to operate from there. They will continue to hold civilization hostage. They will continue to strike when and where they please, murdering us and destroying our property.
To prevent that, we must take away their safe haven. The so called Northern Alliance will not do that. They have other goals. They want to rule Afghanistan not civilize it. The best, in fact the only defense against terrorism is to destroy it at it's root. It is we who must capture and hold our enemy's territory. It is we who must defeat their military and occupy their homeland. No amount of bombing will achieve that. We must do it on the ground. As to how, here is how I believe we can do it.
South of Kabul, there is a kind of plains area. It is a bit less mountainous than the rest. There we must find a place to drop in an airborne division. Once down, they must quickly establish a perimeter so that the Corps of Army Engineers can come in and build a temporary aircraft landing field. This allows us to bring in an Infantry and an Armored division. Their immediate task will be to widen and harden the perimeter. They must take and hold the surrounding high ground. That will give us an operations base area with a hard perimeter.
With a safe operations base we can bring in the rest of the army; as many units as are needed. If no nearby airfield can be quickly captured, the one in operations must be upgraded to a full scale military airfield. There will be a great deal of traffic for it.
The next step is crucial as it concerns how we will deal with captives and the civilian population. We must bring in field hospitals and humanitarian units to deal with the refugees and captives. They will be streaming in as soon as they learn we are there. They must be disarmed, disinfected, housed, fed, treated for disease, and guarded. There will be millions of them. We will need to establish huge tent cities for them with guards. More about this later.
For the assault on Kabul, we will need two more armored divisions and two more infantry divisions. One armored will drive directly on Kabul followed by an infantry division. The other two armored groups will swing wide to the north and south to form a classic pincer movement. There will be two infantry divisions in reserve.
As the armored moves on Kabul, millions of Afghanistan people may be expected to surrender. We will have food and medicine and they will know that. Food and medicine continue to be the least expensive and most effective weapons we have. Most of the so called elite Taliban soldiers will surrender just as the youngsters in Iraq did. When the American army shows up we will see who are the elite troops and who are the warriors of rhetoric.
These surrenders cannot be allowed to delay the assault. So long as they are unarmed the captives must be directed to the rear. There they will be directed to the refuge encampments in the operations area. For the ones who are armed, they must make a quick life and death decision. That's how it is in war. Negotiation is not an option. They will only hear, put down your arms once. It could be the last thing they ever hear.
For sure, there will be some hard core Taliban holed up in Kabul. They will put up a fight and most of them will probably die there. They will die because there is no way to defend that city against tanks. Their weapons are obsolete and their military is more suited to bandit type raids than war. In a straight up fight, a terrorist has no advantage. The discipline soldier has all the advantage. I predict that Kabul will fall in a matter of days. With the capital in US control, the smaller cites will not resist. There will only be cleaning up to do. We need not go out of our way to capture every village and hamlet. The refuges will tell us what is important.
The most difficult cleanup will be in the al-Qaida strongholds. That will require the same kind of seek and destroy effort that was successful in the Pacific operations of WWII. Our advantage will be that we will be able to cut these desert rats off from the outside world. We own their air space and we will have them surrounded. If we prevent their resupply, they must eventually succumb. We can pivot on Kabul and slowly sweep the holes and caves while minimizing risk to our troops. Time will be on our side.
In the refugee camps, we will face several difficult problems. The logistics of feeding and housing millions of desperate people is daunting in itself. In addition, there will be the task of controlling them. In that, there is also an opportunity. This is a perfect time to begin teaching the principles of self government. In each of the many refugee camps the people must be encouraged to elect self governing boards or councils. This will make the military's administrative tasks somewhat simpler. A large part of the burden will be transferred to the Afghan people. Out of these village council groups, we can eventually create the nucleus of an elected government.
While doing that, we will need to be alert for subversion. There are sure to be Taliban infiltrators inside the camps. In many cases, they will be exposed by a people who have had enough of them. In some cases, they will expose themselves by their actions. Still, the situation will require vigilance. It will be very important to be sure that no one comes into these camps armed.
I suspect that we may notice another anomaly in the refugee situation. We may find that the population of Afghanistan has strangely increased. Who can say how many hungry people from neighboring countries will decide to become Afghans just to be wards of the American occupation?
However they come, these people must be handled properly. They will eventually become our allies in establishing a viable government. It is they who must step up and make it work. They must be made self sufficient as quickly as possible. Given the opportunity, I believe most of them will work hard to succeed. They will see what we have in America and they will want it for themselves. Who wouldn't? There are few people in the third world who would not rather be Americans.
As to the occupation, we must face the reality. It will take a long time. We will need to be in Afghanistan for many years to establish a viable democracy there. I think that is necessary. If we disrupt their present government, we have a responsibility to them. The alternative is continued terrorism against civilization. We cannot just bomb them to pieces and then let another mob of bandits take over.
A final note about the Northern Alliance. It is probable that
they will want to become the default government of Afghanistan.
That cannot happen. The people of Afghanistan deserve better than
that. They deserve a chance at a representative democracy. While
the members of the Northern Alliance must participate, they must
not be allowed to take control. That would be little better that
the current situation. They would have little incentive to lead
and every incentive to rule.
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