Y2K! Truth, Myth, and Bull: Back to
William's Archives.
I had to do a double-take one day last week when I walked past a florist shop
displaying a sign which said "All our plants are Y2K compliant." A
little further on, I went into a shoe store. I finally bought the shoes when
the clerk assured me they were Y2K compliant.
OK! What's going on? What is the reality and what is the Bull? Here is an E-mail which came from my famous friend "Charles P. Anonymous." I did correct his spelling and some of his syntax. Not all of it because I did not want to lose his voice. This really is the way he talks.
William:
We have been studying the Y2K problem at work. Most of the stuff is total myth. You know, the kind that says the world is ending 10 .. 9 .. 8 ... etc. Here are the real issues in my opinion.
1. The entire problem boils down to software that saves the year in a 2 digit format instead of the 4 digit format. Then this same software adds 1900 to the date saved and comes up with the date.
2. The computer bios and hence the OS may have a problem successfully changing the internal date from 1 sec. before midnight on dec 31st, 1999 to Jan 1, 2000. Big deal you just change it. One time only.
3. Software that computes delta days by the date may be confuses when the first date is before 2000 and the second one is after. They may get a negative number.
4. Most problems originate in the application software, specifically book keeping software where dates are important for billing, etc. Changing the OS will not help those problems.
suggestion, if you are really wondering what will happen is do what we did. Change the date on you computer and see what happens.
Test:
Change your date 5 (or 15 if you are slow) minutes before the year changes to
2000 and create a file "notepad is good for that" and look at the
date "detail mode is good for that." Now wait till the time rolls
over and check your clock. Double click on the time on the system tray and see
what year it says. If it says 2000 you are fine, if it says 1900
try to change it to 2000. then create another file and check the date it says.
If these work, I doubt that win95 is going to create a problem.
Also, Look at the software you have and ask the question, how important is the
correct date to the operation of the program. You may want to create a file
from the program, especially if it is an older win3.1 program. Then check the
date stamp on the file.
By the way..... The world is not going into a melt down when the clock ticks to 2000 :-) 5 .. 4 .. 3 .. 2 .. 1 ... fizzle ......
This is the biggest over hyped problem that ever existed. The banks should worry because of interest calculations and stupid databases saving and entering dates in 2 digit formats. You may get some outlandish bill in the mail but that is not effecting your computer.
Chuck.
OK. For most of us with home, or even small business PC's, Mr. Anonymous gives very sound advice. Especially for PC's purchase in the last year or so, there will be no big Y2K problem. Now, what about the larger issues. What should we worry about?
In my opinion, there are three major areas of concern. These are the banks with our money, the government (in particular Social Security), and the power grid.
I have no indications that the banking industry is making any concerted effort to examine or resolve the issues with their software. Thus, the industry needs to be watched closely. The problem here is that we could lose access to our funds for the period of time it takes them to recover from a Y2K failure. My guess is, this could be as long as three months.
Now, we will manage, I'm sure, but we will have to use extraordinary means
to do so. If we don't have any extra cash cached, we may have to resort to
barter and person to person loans. Stuff from the golden olden days. By the by,
if you do have money cached, it's best not to tell anyone. In our current
cultural climate, people get murdered just for whatever change they happen to
have in their pockets. In
The Social Security people claim they are in good shape and no problems will occur. If it's true, this is good since a large number of Seniors are totally dependent on those checks for basic survival. We notice this because the Meijer's store we shop at is next door to a large Senior Citizen residence. We try not to go there on the check receiving date. The times we did, it was interesting to notice how carefully these people must shop. One missed check could turn an honest, decent citizen into a beggar. That would be a rotten shame. I pray, that, just this once, the government is telling the truth.
The real disaster could occur, however, if the power companies do not get with it. No one has any idea of the number of Y2K problems which could occur in a large distributed system like the North American power grid. There could be many. There could be zero. We just don't know. Unfortunately, neither do we have any indication that the power companies are taking the issue seriously.
We only need observe what goes on in a minor power outage, such as is often caused by high winds, to realize how totally dependant we are on electrical power. Without it, nothing works. A compliant computer still needs electricity. So do gasoline pumps, furnaces, refrigerators, airports, sewage systems, water purification systems, hospitals, grocery stores and, as Willie Gaffer reminds me, breweries.
Without electrical power, we would be back to the eighteenth century in a
hurry. We may wax nostalgically about the good old days, but only fools would
want to go back to outhouses and wood burning stoves. Only fools would want to
have their world limited to walking distance. As to medicine, we need only look
at the so called
These are the three issues I would worry about. I will continue to try to
keep track of what's going on. Whatever I learn will appear here. If you learn
anything, or know of related issues, let me know.
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